Why Second Half comebacks don’t happen
90-minute result is changed after the interval e.g. a team that was
winning at half-time end up losing at full-time or a match which
was all-square at the break finishes in favour of one side over
It would be natural to assume, would it not, that there is quite a
lot of change after the break.
The manager will have had time to assess the opposition tactics and
to share some strategies with his team. And a team facing the
prospect of a loss may regroup and come out with renewed vigour and
Would it therefore surprise you to learn that last season in the
Premier League, of the 114 matches where a team was winning after
45 minutes, no fewer than 75% of them went on to win the match.
Maybe this was just one of those strange patterns that can occur
from time to time? Well the results were 78% in 2009/10 and 76% in
The lower English divisions showed a similar if slightly lower
results set hovering around the 73-74% level, so what about
evidence from further afield?
Let’s take Spain’s La Liga in 2010/11… the figure was 75%.
How about looking at the German Bundesliga? In 2009/10, the data
returned another 75% reading.
And finally in 2008/09, why not consider Serie A in Italy. These
random stats were similarly solid at 75%.
On this evidence there seems little point for managers to deliver
motivational half-time team talks!
For players to drastically re-think their second half game plan and
for punters to feverishly search the markets in order to come up
with some sort of ‘Plan B’.
As shown from the above, the full-time result, more often than not,
is staring them straight in the face.
And that’s the next bet… right there; simply back the team that is
leading at half-time to win the match in the in-play markets.
What’s more, many’s the time you’ll find the price on offer for the
winning side, particularly if they were the pre-match underdog, to
still be more than generous.
The 75% strike rate would suggest sides who are leading at
half-time should be around [1.31] to win.
Now many will be shorter than this… but many will also be bigger!
If you are a football trader or you use one of the football trading
methods this knowledge could enhance your profits.
The bottom line is that you only need a few of these key stats to
keep you in profitable bets.